FanBoardHQ

Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State University · 2023 · Conference USA

FanBoardHQ CFP
#62
Efficiency
-3.1
76th FBS
Record
9-4
Conf. record
6-2
Conf. finish
3rd
of 9
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Jacksonville State went 9-4 and was ranked 62nd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 40th-ranked defense carried them, with an 111th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 60% of offensive plays with a 71st-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 40% of plays with a 124th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-2
Q3
0-2
Q4
9-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 9.0 wins
Strength of Record
53rd
-2.0 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
126th
full season
126th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
109th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.9 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
0vs UTEPConference USA#121W 1714+14.7100%-14.0Q4
1vs East Tennessee StateSouthernW 493+33.8100%-3.2Q4
2@ Coastal CarolinaSun Belt#63L 1630-5.50%-12.0Q3
4vs Eastern MichiganMid-American#112W 210+20.9100%-1.2Q4
5@ Sam HoustonConference USA#118W 3528+7.7100%-9.1Q4
6@ Middle TennesseeConference USA#105W 4530+2.9100%4.8Q4
7vs LibertyConference USA#23L 1331-9.30%-14.6Q2
8vs Western KentuckyConference USA#69W 2017+3.3100%-3.6Q4
9@ FIUConference USA#123W 4116+17.1100%3.9Q4
10@ South CarolinaSEC#68L 2838-10.80%-1.3Q2
12vs Louisiana TechConference USA#126W 5617+17.7100%19.5Q4
13@ New Mexico StateConference USA#65L 1720-1.40%-4.3Q3
Postseason
vs LouisianaSun Belt#87W 3431+1.7100%-5.0Q4

13 played · 9-4. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Jacksonville State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-11.9+2.4+16.8-14-3-12-1-95-15-44-119-4Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 124th
SR 119thYPP 119thEPA 126th
RushingEff 71st
SR 75thYPP 58thEPA 75th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 81st
SR 80thYPP 68thEPA 86th
Rush defenseEff 5th
SR 10thYPP 6thEPA 5th
Dropback rate 40%Tempo +7.7 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 93rd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 35%1st2nd · Offense: 42%2nd · Defense allowed: 36%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 41%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 35%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 93.0Q1 · Allowed: 72.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 85.0Q2 · Allowed: 71.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 103.0Q3 · Allowed: 48.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 96.0Q4 · Allowed: 51.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledJacksonville StateOffenseDefense
Jacksonville State Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 111th
-6.9
Field position: -0.9Finishing drives: -6.0
Field position -0.9Finishing drives -6.0= -6.9
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 97th · Finishing 107th

Defensive EffRanked 40th
+3.2
Field position: -0.5Finishing drives: +3.7
Field position -0.5Finishing drives +3.7= +3.2
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 84th · Finishing 38th

2.15 points per drive on offense, 1.36 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(248)41% / 59%47%5.6
Q2(241)37% / 63%39%5.8
Q3(252)35% / 65%38%5.5
Q4(240)35% / 65%45%5.1
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(89)10.247%6.9
2nd(146)8.741%6.8
3rd(117)7.327%4.5
4th(11)7.327%3.8
All (363)38%6.0
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(335)9.742%5.5
2nd(183)6.543%5.2
3rd(84)4.457%4.5
4th(16)3.369%5.2
All (618)45%5.3

Jacksonville State, all games.